夜生活

Postal Savings Bank (601658): Unique gene and endowment differentiated retail bank

18/03/2020

Postal Savings Bank (601658): Unique gene and endowment differentiated retail bank
The retail business has distinctive characteristics, and it has broad space for future development. As a state-owned large bank in its growth period, the Postal Savings Bank has a unique “self-employed + agency” retail outlet, which penetrates the county and central and western regions, gains a large retail customer base and has a stable deposit baseThrough the promotion of the systematic transformation of outlets, the future development space is broad, and the development strategy of creating a “first-class large-scale retail bank” can be steadily advanced.Optimizing the asset structure can further increase the level of return on the asset side, and deeply cultivate the comprehensive financial service needs of a large retail customer base, which can help the rapid development of intermediate business.We predict that the company’s net profit attributable to mothers will increase by 15 in 2019-2021.1% / 14.0% / 13.3%, EPS is 0 without considering over-allotment.70/0.80/0.90 yuan, the reasonable price range is expected to be 6.27?6.89 yuan. Diversified shareholding structure, sinking retail outlets. The Post Group has an absolute controlling stake in the Postal Savings Bank. The appointment of 10 strategic investors constitutes a diversified equity structure.Backed by the Post Group, the Postal Savings Bank has a unique “self-employed + agent” retail outlets, penetrates the county and the central and western regions, and gains a large retail customer base. The customer sinking advantage is obvious.Postal Savings Bank and the five state-武汉夜生活网owned banks have formed misaligned competition. The low-cost and high-quality deposits brought by the unique agency outlets have limited profit contribution. The “self-operated + agency” model has earlier use of funds and operating efficiency of outletsGreat room for improvement.With the start of small loan business pilots and the systematic transformation of outlets, the use of funds and operating efficiency at outlets have promoted rapid improvement. Differentiated positioning, strong profit growth Post Bank has taken root in the county area, and it has a good retail business foundation, and its profit continues to grow rapidly.Under the differentiated positioning of the Postal Savings Bank, the debt end obtains stable deposits with the lowest price, which has obvious advantages. The introduction of new structured deposit rules can make up for the cost pressure on the reject side.The asset side is equipped with high-resolution retail loans, and personal business loans and consumer loans are priced higher, so the return on assets is higher, but the proportion of loans is still low, and the asset structure needs to be optimized.Due to the late start of PBC’s loan business and the historical inventory risk is relatively small, overlapping its loan structure, which is dominated by retail loans, is relatively resistant to cycles and diversified risks, which makes PBC’s credit cost a certain advantage.There is room for controversial improvement in intermediate business and cost control. During the growth period, the net profit growth rate in 2020 is expected to be 14.0% We predict that the company’s net profit attributable to mothers will increase by 15 in 2019-2021.1% / 14.0% / 13.3%, excluding EPS, the EPS is 0.70/0.80/0.90 yuan, BVPS 6 in 2020.27 yuan.It is estimated that the cash dividend ratio for 2019-2021 will be 30% per year.As a major retail-oriented bank, PBC is estimated to be comparable to the five major banks and the leading retail bank, China Merchants Bank, which has similar scales. The listed banks in 2020 will predict PB 0.79 times.As a major retail bank with a rare restructuring in A-shares, PBC should enjoy the predicted premium (earlier and comparable target Hong Kong stocks in 2020 wind forecast the PB’s estimated premium to be 8%) by 2020 1.0-1.The reasonable price range corresponding to 1 PB is 6.27?6.89 yuan. Risk Warning: The economic downturn exceeds expectations, and asset quality deteriorates more than expected.