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Depth-Company-Wuliangye (000858): Favorable industry environment reform effect appeared Wuliangye wine sales exceeded expectations

31/03/2020

Depth * Company * Wuliangye (000858): The favorable reform of the industry environment shows the effect of Wuliangye wine sales exceeding expectations

Wuliangye announced its semi-annual report for 19 years.

Revenue for the first half of 2019 was 271.

500 million, an increase of 26 previously.

7%, net profit 93.

4 billion, with a previous appreciation of 31.

3%, budget benefit 2.

41 yuan.

Revenue and net profit for the second quarter of 19 were 95.

600 million and 28.

600 million, revenue increased by 27 in ten years.

1%, net profit increased by 33.

7%.

The company’s period-end advance payment 43.

5 billion.

Revenue and net profit are in line with previous performance forecasts.

Key points of support level Revenue increased 苏州桑拿网 26 in 1H19.

7%, of which 2Q19 increased by 27.

1% may be mainly due to the increase in Wuliangye liquor sales.

(1) In 1H19, Wuliangye wine sold well, and its overall sales increased rapidly. Among them, the price of Puwuye was very high. We judged that the sales volume increased steadily. In 1618, the low-level Wuliangye wine had a significant volume and its proportion increased.

There are several reasons for the strong sales of Wuliangye liquor, which led to tight supply of Moutai. The continued increase in prices in the first half of the year stimulated the demand for cost-effective Wuliangye, substitution, product upgrades, and new product price increases are expected, which may cause dealers to resell stocks.
1H19 7th-generation Wuliangye’s ex-factory price remains unchanged at 789 yuan, and 8-generation Wuliangye’s ex-factory price is 889 yuan. Since it was put on the market in June, we judge that the average price of Wuliangye wine has not increased much.

The average price of the first half of 1919 was over 850 yuan, of which the average price in 2Q19 exceeded 900 yuan, spanning the increase.

(2) As the series of wines is in the period of organizational structure adjustment, the first half of the series of wines, special head song, Wuliangol Company was integrated into Wuliang Luzhou-flavor Series Liquor Co., Ltd., we judge that the growth rate of series wine may be slower than Wuliangye liquor.

(3) The significant increase in net cash flow from operating activities in 1H19 was mainly due to the increase in cash due to bank acceptance bills and the increase in the cash ratio of cash in loans, which also reflected the strong growth in demand.

1H19 advance receipt 43.

500 million, basically basically the same, down 500 million chain, mainly due to the company’s sales policy adjustments, according to our grass-roots research, the new product Wuliangye initial allowance for dealers monthly payment.

The new team brings positive changes and the business cycle continues to move up.

At this stage, the company’s marketing system is actively adjusted, and its business objectives are more challenging.

The company retired and removed 129 high-quality imitation products from 42 brands and 129 high-quality imitation products, adjusted the organizational structure, and replaced 21 marketing theaters with 7 marketing centers and 60 marketing bases.More than 260 marketers were added, and nearly 2,400 businesses were tied to social terminals 5.

50000.

In mid-2019, the 8th generation of Wuliangye was put on the market, the digital system was launched, the control and distribution model was operating normally, and channel control was strengthened.

The company has been growing in doubt for the past 3 years, but the results have always exceeded market expectations.

Although the 8th generation of Wuliangye still needs to make a balance between volume and price, Mid-Autumn Festival sales will be an important observation point, but there is no doubt that the business cycle will continue to rise.

It is estimated that the industry environment is favorable for Wuliangye, and the marketing system has been actively adjusted. We have raised our profit forecast for 2019 and expect an EPS of 4 in 19-20.

45 yuan, 5.

29 yuan, an increase of 29 a year.

0%, 18.

8%, maintain “Buy” rating. Inventory of major risk channels 北京夜网 facing ratings exceeded expectations, and prices of Moutai fell.