桑拿

Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493) Quarterly Report Review 2019: Expenses increase and drag on optimistic about the contribution of refinery in 2019

30/03/2020

Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493) Quarterly Report Review 2019: Expenses increase and drag on optimistic about the contribution of refinery in 2019
Event: On April 26, 2019, the company released the first quarter of 2019 report: 164 revenue.6.1 billion, a year-9.08%; net profit attributable to mother 6.05 billion, at least -4.79%; estimated average return on net assets increased by 2.85%, a decrease of 1 per year.48 units.  Opinions: 1. The increase in expenses is a drag, and the performance is slightly less than expected in Q1 2019.0.5 billion, down 4 every year.79%, slightly less than expected, preliminary: (1) sales expenses (increased sales and freight) increased by 59 per year.97% and management expenses (increased employee compensation) increase by 30 per year.54%, a drag (2) Project R & D investment increases by 42 each year.76%.  As for the price difference, in Q1 of 2019, the average price difference of PTA was 770 yuan / ton, which was -16 years.53%, +14.81%.Polyester filament POY average price difference is 1407 yuan / ton, later +9.54%, -12 MoM.75%; The average price difference of FDY is 2092 yuan / ton, +5 for ten years.06%, +13.67%; the average spread of DTY is 3067 yuan / ton, +16 in ten years.61%, -4.00%.  2. Zhejiang Petrochemical Project has been completed at the trial operation stage of oil and gas intermodal transportation. The most difficult time has passed. It is optimistic that Zhejiang Petrochemical will start to contribute gradually in 2019. Zhejiang Petrochemical is the company’s “crude oil-PX-PTA-polyester filament”Industrial chain layout, planning and construction of 4000 budget / year refining and chemical integration project (in two phases), each scale can be adjusted 2000 interest rate / year oil refining, 400 exchange rate / year PX, 140 annual / year ethylene, 26 PCs, National SixStandard oil products, etc., the first phase of the project has been completed at the end of 2018, and is currently in the trial operation stage of oil and gas combined transportation.In 2019, through the gradual expansion of the installation and the gradual increase in load, Zhejiang Petrochemical will gradually begin to contribute to operating income and performance. Rongsheng Petrochemical has passed the most difficult time and ushered in the dawn of victory.According to our calculations, after the first phase of Zhejiang Petrochemical is put into operation, the long-term revenue reachability is 116.3 billion yuan, and the net profit is 11.1 billion yuan. There is huge room for future growth.  3. The size of PTA is higher in 2019, and the price is supported by growth. The release of PX’s production capacity has released the expanded PTA profit. The PTA industry has experienced a downturn of more than 4 years. The production capacity has increased significantly, and the operating rate has steadily rebounded.The center moves up.In 2018, the nominal capacity of the PTA industry was maintained at 5129 / the operating rate increased to 78.8%, the operating rate is expected to increase to 83% in 2020, the supply and demand 南京夜网 pattern has improved significantly.The company’s participation in controlling PTA’s total production capacity is about 1,350 tons (28% of the country’s total production capacity), of which 595 shares of equity power generation, PTA spread increases by 100 yuan / ton (excluding tax), the company’s net profit will increase by 5.95 trillion, elastic toughness.And due to the continuous release of PX production capacity of private refining and chemical industry, PX prices expanded downwards to expand the PTA price gap, significantly improving performance.  4. Investment rating and estimation: It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent in 2019/20/21 will be 34.73/56.45/75.6.3 billion, PE is 24/15/11 times.Maintain the “Highly Recommended” rating.  5. Risk warning: The price of oil drops sharply; downstream demand is less than expected; the progress of Zhejiang Petrochemical project is not up to expectations.